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Government Budget Forecasting Theory and Practice

Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice
Government Budget Forecasting theory and practiceEdited by Jinping Sun and Thomas D. Lynch p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13:978-1-4200-4582-6
ISBN-10:1-4200-4582-2

1. Local budgets–United states–States. 2. Local finance–United states–states. I. Sun, Jinping. II. Lynch, Thomas Dexter, 1942-
KJ9147.G68 2008
336.02’730112–dc22
© 2008 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

Acknowledgments

This book is a product of the work of numerous individuals. We would like to dedicate this book to the late Jack Rabin of The Pennsylvania State University, who over they years was committed to advancing the art and science of public budgeting and was very encouraging and supportive of this project.

We would also like to acknowledge the Taylor & Francis Group’s editorial and production team, particularly Richard O’Hanley, Cartherine Giacari, Joette Lynch, and Jennifer Genetti for their patience, support, and assistance throughout the process. We are also grateful to the dedicated work of the staff at Macmillan India during the manuscript editing process.

This book draws on the work of more than 20 contributors (practitioners and scholars), who made this intellectual dialogue and collaboration possible. We enjoyed working with them and are grateful for the time and effort they put into this project.

we would also like to thank our colleagues at California State University, Bakersfield and Louisiana State University for their constructive comments.Special thanks to Jeffrey Marshall, a graduate student at California State University, Bakersfield, who provided fine editing and other technical services.

This book would not have been possible without the support of our families. We would like to dedicate this book to Xiaojun Ren and Cynthia E. Lynch who, with love and encouragement, have been very patient and committed to what we are doing.

Jinping Sun
Thomas D. Lynch.

Federal Budget & and Financial Management Reform

Federal Budget & Financial Management Reform
Federal budget & and financial management reformLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Federal budget and financial management reform /[edited by] Thomas D.
Lynch
p. cm.
ISBN 0-89930-538-5
1. Budget-United states. 2. Finance, Public-United States.
3. Government spending policy-United States. 4. United States-
Appropriations and expenditures. I. Lynch, Thomas Dexter, 1942
HJ2052.F4 1991
353.0072’2-dc20 90-20711

British Library Cataloging in Publication Data is available

All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher.

A collection of original essays by specialists in the field, this book examines the crucial budgetary and financial management problems that face the U.S. government and makes concrete recommendations on how current processes can be improved. The authors make it clear that although the present federal budgetary and financial management systems are not working, the case is far from hopeless.

Several chapters analyze the flaws in the federal budget-making process that lead to deadlock between the president and Congress and ultimately to higher deficits. To remove the checks and balances system from its present political stalemate, a workable two-stage budgetary process is suggested and bipartisan action at the highest level in strongly urged.

Another chapter explains the context in which forecasting is used in federal government budget making address the problem of the failure to predict the yearly budget deficit with reasonable accuracy. Proposals for improving public financial management include centralizing financial management functions, improving debt collections practices, eliminating deficiencies in the application of information technology, and “privatizing” entities such as the postal service, AMTRAK, and Social Security. Providing clarification of complex issues together with constructive approaches to reform, this book will be of internet to both general readers and scholars, students, public policy, and financial management.

Copyright © 1991 by Thomas D. Lynch

Exercises in Public budgeting

Exercises in Public Budgeting

Exercises in Public budgetingLibrary of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Lynch, Thomas Dexter
1. Budget-United States-Problems, exercises, etc.
I. Title
HJ2051.L925-1983 350.72’2’0973 82-9796
ISBN 0-13-294082-5 AACR2

© 1983 by Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewoos Cliffs, N.J. 07632
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher.
Printed in the United States of America.

Preface

While this book is primarily my own work and responsibility, other writers have contributed some exercises. Sydney Ducombe produced the ZBB Exercises and A. John Vogt produced the Preparation Exercises. In addition, Susan Threldkeld assembled Appendices A and B, Moreover, credit for many exercises throughout this book must go to the Management Sciences Training Center, U.S. Office of Personnel Management. Thanks are extended to Jeannie Swain and Dixie Jennings for typing, research, and other essentials. Thanks also to the reviewers, including Carol Lewis and Carol Barry.

Thomas D. Lynch
North Miami, Florida

Contemporary Public Budgeting

CONTEMPORARY PUBLIC BUDGETING
Contemporary Public Budgeting
Library of Congress Catalog Number: 79-67062
ISBN: 0-87855-722-9
Printed in the United States of America
Includes index.
1. Zero-base budgeting-United States-Addresses, essays, lectures. 2 Budget-United States-
Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Lynch, Thomas
Dexter, 1942-
HJ2052.C66 353.007’2 79-67062

All rights reserved under international and Pan-American copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or many information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. All inquiries should be addressed to Transaction Books, Rutgers-the State University, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08903.

PREFACE

Contemporary Public Budgeting is designed to complement this editor’s earlier text, Public Budget in America (Prentice Hall, 1979). In a textbook, I found it impossible to present anything more than the basics of modem budgeting. This reader brings together articles published in The Bureaucrat, the Public Administration Review and previously unpublished material. Each article was selected on the basis of helping the reader understand the contemporary nature of public budgeting. The authors, a blend of academicians, and professionals, explain today’s public budgeting in such a manner that the news stories have more meaning and the subject of budgeting becomes more relevant.

The field of budgeting is experiencing future shock. In writing a textbook, one is painfully aware of the explosion of new ideas, professional developments, new publications, and interesting research efforts in progress. This reader is an attempt to provide more depth to the recent developments in the field. It should help us, for a short time, to better appreciate the contemporary before it also becomes history.

Please note that an appendix contains study and review questions. These should help the reader reflect upon the chapters, and provide possible essay test questions for an instructor who might adopt this book for classroom use.

Copyright © 1981 by The Bureaucrat, Inc.

Thomas D. Lynch

Public Budgeting in America Fifth Edition

Public Budgeting in America Fifth Edition
By Robert W. Smith, Thomas D. Lynch
Pearson Prentice Hall
ISBN-10: 0-13-097993-7
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-097993-3
Public Budgeting in America fifth edition
Published by Longman
Copyright © 2004
Pub. Date: Dec 15, 2003
Format: Paper
Pearson Prentice Hall. all rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This Publication is protected by Copyright and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.

PREFACE

This fifth edition makes improvements to previous editions by drawing upon the strength of a collaborative effort. Specifically, this edition adds a co-author—Robert Smith, who comes to this task with considerable state government budget experience. We believe this edition continues and enhances the blend of practical application, theory, and empirical rigor necessary for understanding public budgeting in the United States. Our collaboration in this edition focuses on balancing the strength of a winning approach with timely additions and updated tables, charts, and graphs. This revised material complements the successful approach of the earlier editions, which explained budgetary practice and process as they developed in the twentieth century. It was our task in this fifth edition to develop an explanation of public budgeting in a twenty-first century context.

Indeed, public budgeting is an evolving endeavor, and the past twenty years have witnessed legislation and practices that have tried to cope with budget crises at the federal, state, and local levels. Unfortunately, many of these efforts have not adequately addressed the complex structural, governance, and process issues fundamental to public budgeting. Our approach was to address recent budget developments and related phenomena with a focus on the problem itself. We are optimistic that the level of academic inquiry and professional expertise in the field of public budgeting is up to the task. However, the real challenge is to bring these energies to bear on the fundamentals of the budgetary process for meaningful long-term reform.

To this end, this text blends the experiences of a former state budget practitioner and the insights of an accomplished budget scholar. Of particular note is the chapter on the use of analysis in the budget process. The result is a text that is reorganized, relevant, and timely for students and teachers of public budgeting. At the same time, it is difficult to separate budgeting from issues of financial management, and so we address both subjects in a manner that stresses the interrelationships between the two. Finally, because there are few texts that focus on the details of budget practice and process, we believe that this book is an essential read for students and practitioners interested in a full understanding of budgeting in America.

We acknowledge our appreciation to everyone who has contributed to this revised edition. We wish to especially thank the Prentice Hall editorial staff including Heather Shelstad, John Ragozzine, and Suzanne Remore. Also, a special thanks goes to Jessica Drew, Jennifer Bryant, and the anonymous reviewers from Prentice Hall who worked on this project. The authors would also like to thank Melissa Scott of Carlisle Publishers Services for her patience, fine editing, and other suggestions to improve this fifth edition. We also gratefully acknowledge the technical and support services provided by Rob Carey, a Ph.D. student and researcher in the Policy Studies program, and Stacey Davenport and Courtenay Ryals of the Department of Political Science at Clemson University.

Finally, this text would not be possible without the unwavering support and commitment of our wives and families. A loving thanks goes to Kathleen C. Gallagher-Smith and Keegan and Nolan Smith. Another loving thanks goes to Cynthia E. Lynch for her tolerance and patience as this edition was prepared.

Robert W. Smith, Ph.D.
Thomas D. Lynch, Ph.D

Public Budgeting in America fourth Edition

Public Budgeting in America fourth edition
Public Budgeting in America fourth editionLibrary of congress cataloging-in-publication data
Lynch, Thomas Dexter
Public Budgeting in America/Thomas D. lynch –4th ed.
p. cm.
ISBN 0-13-735846-6
I. budget–United States I. Title
HJ2051.L93 1995.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher

PREFACE

This fourth edition updates the earlier one by using the more empirically related literature of public budgeting and financial management. Since the third edition,the literature has significantly improved, making it easier to report on existing conditions in the profession itself. Of particular note is the added use of analysis in the budget process. In the continuing drama of the federal budget crisis, much has been written and many laws have been passed. Unfortunately, the crisis continues and the details associated with the crisis have become more complex without adding to the understanding of the essential problem. My solution was not to write about some of the more recent federal budget reforms but instead to focus on the problem itself. In general, I am impressed that academic inquiry and the professional field have both improved-the notable exception being the federal budget precess itself.

I acknowledge my appreciation to everyone who has contributed to this edition. I wish to that the Prentice Hall reviewers, David C. Ringsmuth, California State University-Northidge, and Richard L. McAnaw, Western Michigan University. special thanks to Jennie Katsaros and Elizabeth Best of Prentice Hall, and Rita Kramer of Florida Atlantic University.

© 1995, 1990, 1985, 1979 by Prentice-Hall, Inc. A Pramount Communications Company. Eanglewood Cliffs, New Jersey 07632

Thomas D. Lynch.

Public Budgeting in America Third Edition

Public Budgeting in America Third EditionPublic Budgetin in America third edition
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Public Data
Lynch, Thomas Dexter
Public budgeting in America/Thomas D. Lynch.-3rd ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographies and index.
1. Budget-United States. I. Title
HJ2051.L93 1990
350.72’2’0973-dc19 89-31174
ISBN: 0-13-737388-0

© 1990, 1985, 1979 by Prentice-Hall, Inc.
A Division of Simon & Schuster
Englewook Cliffs, New Jersey 07632

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduces, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Printed in United states of America.

PREFACE

This edition is primarily an update of the second edition. The major changes are associated with computer technology, debt management, an improving professional literature, and professional development. The microcomputer is clearly making a difference in budgeting and financial management, and in this edition, I explain its increasingly important role. One subject that needed updating was debt management.The Reagan years brought significant changes in debt management by first opening the Pandora’s box of creative financing to government debt managers, and then closing the box due to federal treasury losses. The second edition reflected the first set of changes; this edition reflects the later reforms.

In reflecting on the changes, I believe that most were prompted by remarkable developments in the profession, but that some were prompted by my desire to communicate this complex body of knowledge in a more intelligible manner. Such areas as forecasting and capital budgeting have undergone remarkable changes in recent years. I am still amazed at the rate of change and the increasing sophistication of the subject matter as it evolves. Professional change is not only represent but growing. The Government Finance Officer Association (GFOA) is continuing to produce fine additions to the practical literature on budgeting and financial management. However, its most significant recent contribution to the field is its new yearly budget award process. This process is defensing “good budgeting” and serving as an incentive to many local governments to prepare “good budgets.” In addition, journals like Public Budgeting and Finance and the new Public Budgeting and financial Management are producing a steady flow or articles that enhance the professional understanding of our field.

I must acknowledge my appreciation to everyone who has contributed to this edition. I wish to thank the reviewers for their helpful suggestions: Khi V. Thai, University of Maine, and Grace Hall Saltzstein, University of California-Riverside.

Thomas D. Lynch
Boca Raton, Florida

Public Budgeting in America Second Edition

Public Budgeting in America second edition.Public Budgeting in America second edition
Library of congress cataloging in publication data
Lynch, Thomas Dexter, 1942-
Public budgeting in America.
Bibliography:P.
Includes index.
1. Budget-United States. I. Title.
HJ2051.L93 1985 350.72’2’20973 84-11487
ISBN 0-13-737354-6

© 1985, 1979 by Prentice-Hall. Inc., Englewook Cliffs, New Jersey 07632
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, without permission in written from the publisher.
Printed in United states of America.

PREFACE

I have made significant changes in this edition, based upon the advice of my fellow teachers around the country, who offered suggestions; of students, who freely expressed their dissatisfaction or indirectly showed their confusion by responding poorly to the next; and of book reviewers, who usually were kind but sometimes were critical. I should include myself in the list of critics, because at some point the first edition seemed to take on an independent existence, allowing me to assess it more objectively.

In reflecting on the changes, I believe that most were prompted by remarkable developments in the professional but that some were prompted by my desire to communicate this complex body of knowledge in a more intelligible manner. Such areas as forecasting and capital budgeting have undergone remarkable changes since 1979. I am still amazed at the rate of change and the increasing sophistication of the subject matter as it evolves. I grouped some topics together and added new material. For example, I grouped all the history sections into one chapter and I added text on double-entry bookkeeping and pension funds.

I manintain the same optimism as I did in the first edition. I was pleased by the many adoptions of the first edition, and I do believe the text has served as a focus for the study of public budgeting. Obviously, not all readers appreciate my pragmatic, practitioner-oriented approach or my extremely terse writing style, which does not fully spell out the implications of the concepts discussed. Nevertheless, the text is appreciated by many, and more readers now share my perspective that public administration, and budgeting in particular, is an applied social science, with the focus appropriately on the public manager. For this, I am particularly pleased.

In this preface, I must also acknowledge my appreciation to so many. First, I thank my critics, who cared enough to let me hear their voices. I am grateful to the following people for their helpful reviews of the manuscript: Khi Van thai, University of Miami. Brian Donnelly, Southern Illinois University; and Peter Colby, SUNY-Binghmton. Second, I thank Prentice-Hall and people like Stan Wakefield. One could not have a better publisher. They know how to combine marketing and production with the more human skill of dealing with writers as sensitive and intelligent human beings. Third, I thank my family for tolerating my urge to write and for their continuing education of me as a human being.

All sins of omission and commissions are still mine. I am continually amazed that errors exist after so many reviews, edits and checks of galleys and proofs. Pretience-Hall has me check them all, and these errors are definitely my responsibility. I still recall the embarrassing omission of a source on a chart in the first printing of the first edition. I hope that any errors in this edition are not significant.

Again, I ask professors and students for comments. Your views are appreciated; and as this edition demonstrates, your comments are useful.

Thomas D. Lynch
Boca Raton, florida.

Public Budgeting in America


PUBLIC BUDGETING IN AMERICA.
Public Budgetin in AmericaLibrary of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data.
Lynch, Thomas Dexter
Public Budgeting in America
Includes bibliographies and index.
1. Budget-United States I. Title.
HJ2051.L93 353.007’22 78-31170
ISBN 0-13-737346-5

© 1979 by Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 07632

All rights reserved. No part of this book
may be reproduced in any form or
by any means without permission in writing
from the publisher.

Printed in United states of America.
PREFACE.

When I started teaching public budgeting, i found it quite difficult. I had worked in the federal goverment for six years as a program analyst. I felt that experience with strong feelings that skill development as well as thorough “feel” for budget behavior were essential fo a budget course. In preparing for the course, I felt there was no adequate book, so I created a budget game and held seminars on topics such as debt administration. Within two years, I realized that my teaching strategy was incorrect because the students were not getting enough of the vast basic knowledge essential for budgeting. My solution was to write and use this book.

My educational strategy is that must first give the student basic knowledge and concepts. Next, you can provide the skill development. Without the former, they are lot in a fog of public budgeting activities in which they do not know the vocabulary and concepts. The purpose of this book os to give undergraduates and graduates those basics. I teach the course over two semesters with skill development and exercises concentrated in the second semester. In teaching with the book, I merely ask many detailed questions on each chapter. When the questions are finished, the students know the material. I find this technique quite successful, for it permits excellent discussions and development of why certain details are important. The review questions at the end of the chapters serve as a pool form which I select the mid-term and final questions for graduate students.

The book is designed with students in mind. The first chapters provide the historical, political, and economic context for the course. The material tends to overlap some with other college courses. Thus students should feel more comfortable, but still challenge by the material. The other chapters cover the array of material in specific topic groups. This book is not a cookbook on budgeting, but it does help the students read and even write such a cookbook for their governmental context. The intended audience for the book is primarily the prospective professional manager, and secondly the non-public manager who wishes to understand what is or is not happening our governments.

My hope is that this text will provide a focus for the study of public budgeting and financial management. There has been a lack of direction and focus in this area for many years. Many have felt we need more skill development, model procedures and form, economic models, political and behavioral strategies. Frankly, i agree with most of the arguments. I find fault with those who feel that only their “thing” is worthy of serious attention. In writing this book, I felt a need to stress that our subject is applied social science and the focus must be on the user-the public manager. Given that perspective , the efforts of the social scientist can be understood as contributions to the langer society. My hope is that others will share the underlying belief in this book and that we build from this point. Rather than economists (or political scientist) talking to economist (or political scientist), I hope we all direct our ultimate attention to the users so that our contributions ca be better applied to improve today’s and tomorrow’s world. Theoretical arguments are important, but so applied social science.

When an author puts pen to paper, the product is said to be that of the author. That is wrong, especially in this case of this book. Evidence of my students, graduate assistants, former professors, colleagues, friends, secretaries, and, of course, family are present throughout this effort. Unfortunaly, only I can fully appreciate their contributions, but the credit (if any is be given) belogs to all. My students (Maxwell School, Cyracuse University and Mississippi State University) were my guinea pigs who were fed the early lectures and eventually the draft chapters. I was blessed with excellent unofficial and official graduate assistants: Lutu Nsaman assisted in preparing bibliographic references; Philomene Makolo and Glenda Owens assisted in the drafts, galleys, and page proofs. Professors Sydney Duncombe, Joseph Zimmerman, Lewis Welch, Ronald Stout, Donald Axelrod, Jesse Burkhead, James Carroll, Dwight Waldo, Howard Ball, Morris W. H. Collins, Walter Broadnax, and especially James Riedel are all thanked. Thanks also to Ray Pethel, Stan Wakefield, William Medina, Carl Stenberg, Philip V. Cortese, and R. Ken Hendrick, Jr.

Hopefully, this book will be used in many places. Professors and students. Please tell me what you think of this text. Your comments-orally or in writing-will be appreciated.

THOMAS D. LYNCH

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